By John Miller
Monday the 6th of November, 2017
Jared has been spending a fair amount of time in the Kingdom lately, but what message he has been delivering from his father-in-law to the Saudis is beyond the ken of us mere mortals. We must read the tea leaves, and wait for war to either break out over us, or a continuation of the glorious peace.
What then are we to make of all this recent activity by the faction of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, which has left the Crown Prince free of homegrown opposition?
The recent major purge of the Kingdom’s political and business leadership included several princes, most notably the $18 BILLION-dollar man, Prince Dopey, who famously engaged in a war of words with then candidate Trump. His fall from grace has been astonishing, but it remains unclear whether he has been entirely removed, or simply banished to the shadows for now.
Prince Dopey’s detention was ordered by the anti-corruption body that targeted dozens of people, including 11 princes, four ministers and dozens of ex-ministers. The two right-hand men of Prince Dopey Al-Waleed bin Talal, Waleed bin Ibrahim Al Ibrahim and Saleh Abdullah Kamel, were themselves remarkably powerful and wealthy men, worth a combined $13 BILLION-dollars.
Just as the $30 BILLION-dollar cartel was broken up, yet another prince was killed. Mansour bin Muqrin, the deputy governor of Asir province, died in what has been described as a helicopter accident.
This has left the Crown Prince with a free hand to turn upon the true enemy of the Kingdom: Tehran.
War with Iran could be imminent, and here is why.
Since June 2017, the Qatar Crisis has simmered. The Saudis will not tolerate an Iranian enclave on their side of the Arabian Gulf. Rockets fired into the Kingdom from Iranian bases on the Arabian Peninsula crosses all of their red lines.
The relatively mild and ineffectual Saudi response to Iranian aggression, both in Qatar and in the Yemen, has caused much alarm in certain quarters, and the faction for war with Iran seems to have now gained total victory.
Whether it will come to war with Iran once depended on the Iranians themselves, but there are other forces at play now that may have narrowed the options of Tehran considerably.
The Saudis have very little interest in what occurs on the Persian side of the Arabian Gulf, but have little patience left for the hostile factions operating near their borders. The military build-up by the Kingdom continues unabated, and tensions remain high.
Much may depend on what signal Jared is giving to the Saudis, though the Kingdom may not even need a green light, or heed a red one for much longer. Such is the state of mutual hatred that presently exists across the Gulf.
So what will happen next?
One interest of the West is that the Iranian corridor of terror which runs from Tehran to the Lebanon not be completed. The presence of the Russians in Syria is a complicating factor, but hardly an insoluble problem. The Saudis and the Russians have a cordial understanding based on Russian financial interests in the Kingdom, and while Putin is happy to bombard the enemies of Assad, he is not likely to be reeled into a hot conflict on behalf of either Iran or Syria.
Putin’s bottom line is probably a warm water port in Syria, which nobody will begrudge him in return for avoiding World War Three. What happens to Assad is the great question? Where will the answering blow from the Saudis land?
The paramount interest of America and its allies is that the nuclear program of the Iranians be wound back to the Stone Age, and it is looking increasingly likely that any hot war between the Saudis and the Iranians will begin with a massive and coordinated strike by the Saudis and the Western allies upon the air defences of the Iranians, which would then be followed up by a Kosovo War style air campaign meant to degrade the Iranian threat.
It is anticipated that Saudi boots on the ground could easily clear out the Yemen and Qatar, once there is sufficient will in Riyadh for the fight.
An expansion of the war up into Syria would be largely dependent on how well the Arabian campaign went. A rampant Saudi Arabia might well be tempted to keep marching all the way to Damascus.
A new era has begun in Saudi Arabia, and the 21st Century may well see the Kingdom emerge as a regional military superpower, as well as a financial one.
Full disclosure: John Miller’s IRL name is Frank Faulkner. I currently live in Australia and I write about things that concern me as a Christian, or as a cranky guy. These days I spend all my spare time defending the best (and only worthy) President of the United States since Reagan. Totally worth it. Bring back that 80s prosperity and the Moral Majority, Mr President. Christians4Trump. MAGA.